Shot Discernment: The P35 Sports Method for True Goalie Evaluation
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In our previous article, "Beyond the Numbers: Why Evaluating a Goalie Based Only on Shots Faced is Limiting", we explored why traditional statistics fail to capture the complete picture of goalie performance.
Today, we're pulling back the curtain on the P35 Sports methodology—revealing how we classify and evaluate every shot a goalie faces.
This isn't subjective opinion or coaching intuition. This is a systematic, replicable framework built on years of data that eliminates bias and provides mathematical clarity to goalie evaluation.
The Foundation: Understanding Shot Categories
Every shot a goalie faces tells a story, but not all stories are equal. At the heart of our methodology lies a fundamental distinction between two types of shots:
Easy Shots represent the baseline—shots that, with proper positioning and technique, a goalie should save consistently. These are the routine saves that define competence.
Goal Chances are different. These shots present genuine scoring threats due to positioning, movement, or situational complexity. They're the moments that separate good goalies from great ones, the saves that win games and define careers.
The critical question isn't whether a shot was saved or scored. It's understanding what category that shot belonged to in the first place.
Location Defines Opportunity: Far Shots vs. Slot Shots
Far Shots: The Perimeter Game
When a shot originates from outside the slot, we automatically classify it as an Easy Shot. The reasoning is straightforward: distance provides reaction time, clear sightlines enable proper tracking, and the absence of immediate pressure allows optimal positioning.
Here's what matters: far shots don't count toward Expected Goals calculations. They represent the baseline work every goalie must handle.
But hockey isn't simple, and neither is our system. Two critical exceptions transform a far shot into a Goal Chance:
Screens impair visibility, forcing the goalie to track through traffic and react to a puck they can't fully see.
Deflections change trajectory mid-flight, eliminating the reaction time that distance normally provides.
In both cases, what looked like a routine perimeter shot becomes a legitimate scoring threat.
Slot Shots: Where Games Are Won and Lost
Everything changes inside the slot. Reduced reaction time, sharper shooting angles, and proximity to the net mean every slot shot influences Expected Goals—because every slot shot carries genuine scoring probability.
Within the slot, we maintain our two-category system, but with added nuance. Easy Shots still exist here—shots without passes or lateral movement by the shooter. But the majority of slot shots fall into our Goal Chance classification, and that's where the real evaluation begins.
The Three Grades: Quantifying Danger
Not all goal chances carry equal weight. Through years of analyzing thousands of scoring situations, we have identified three distinct grades of goal chances, each defined by the complexity of movement and reaction required from the goalie.
Grade A: The Cross-Ice Challenge
Picture this: the puck moves from the left side of the slot to the right, or vice versa. The goalie must transition across the crease, reset positioning mid-movement, and react to the shot while still in motion. They're covering maximum distance in minimum time, moving between quadrants while maintaining technical structure.
This is Grade A—the highest probability scoring chance in our system. When a goalie saves a Grade A chance, they've done something more than normal.
Grade B: Moderate Complexity
Grade B chances come in two forms. The first is a single-side pass—movement within the same side of the slot, like a pass from high to low. The goalie must adjust positioning, but the lateral movement is less extreme than Grade A.
The second form is a walk-in shot from the low/middle slot area. Here, a player carries the puck into the heart of the scoring zone and shoots. The goalie faces a controlled entry with moderate reaction time and positioning challenges.
Both scenarios present legitimate scoring threats without the extreme complexity of cross-ice movement.
Grade C: The High Slot Entry
When a player carries the puck from the blue line into the high slot and shoots, we classify it as Grade C. The goalie has more time to read the developing play, faces less acute shooting angles, and can maintain better positioning throughout the sequence.
It's still a Goal Chance—still a shot that influences Expected Goals—but it represents the most manageable category within our goal chance classification.
Accountability Through the Easy Rebound Rule
Here's where our methodology gets precise about goalie responsibility, and where many traditional evaluation systems fail entirely.
The rule is simple: any shot resulting from an easy rebound cannot be classified as a Goal Chance from the goalie's perspective.
Consider the sequence: a shot from outside the slot (easy shot), the goalie makes the save but leaves a rebound in the slot, and an opponent buries the rebound. Traditional evaluation sees a slot shot and calls it a tough chance. Our system sees the truth—the goalie created that opportunity through poor rebound management.
This is the first fundamental step in proper goalie evaluation: distinguishing between chances a goalie faces and chances a goalie creates. Accountability matters, and our system tracks it precisely.
Easy Goals: The Red Flags
An Easy Goal is exactly what it sounds like—a goal scored on an Easy Shot. These are saves the goalie should make every single time: unscreened shots from the blue line, routine wrist shots from the perimeter with clear visibility, shots with no traffic, no deflection, no movement.
Easy Goals should never happen. When they do, they signal something deeper than a single mistake. They indicate technical breakdowns, concentration lapses, or fundamental positioning errors that demand immediate attention.
In our analysis, Easy Goals are immediate red flags. A single Easy Goal can reveal patterns that undermine an entire performance, regardless of what the save percentage suggests.
Expected Goal Chance Value: Where Data Meets Reality
Now we arrive at the mathematical heart of the P35 Sports method.
Expected Goal Chance Value represents the sum of all Goal Chances faced, weighted by their probability of resulting in a goal. We calculate it by multiplying each grade of chance by its corresponding goal probability:
Grade A chances × Grade A goal probability
Grade B chances × Grade B goal probability
Grade C chances × Grade C goal probability
The result is a single number that represents the mathematical reality of scoring threats faced during a game.
These probabilities aren't guesswork or estimates. They're the product of P35 Sports' systematic analysis of thousands upon thousands of goal-scoring situations since our founding.
Every Grade A chance, every Grade B setup, every Grade C opportunity—we've tracked them, categorized them, and calculated their true scoring probability through years of meticulous observation.This is data-driven precision, not coaching intuition.
Consider two goalies who each face 30 shots. Traditional statistics treat them identically. Our method reveals the truth:
Goalie A faces 25 far shots and 5 slot shots (all easy), producing an Expected Goal Chance Value of 1.2.
Goalie B faces 15 far shots and 15 slot shots, including 10 goal chances (4 Grade A, 4 Grade B, 2 Grade C), producing an Expected Goal Chance Value of 6.8.
One goalie faced nearly six times the scoring threat of the other. Traditional statistics would never reveal this reality.
The Goal/Goal Chance Ratio: Measuring Performance Against Expectation
Once we know the Expected Goal Chance Value, we can finally start answering the question that matters: How did the goalie actually perform?
The Goal/Goal Chance Ratio provides the answer:
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio = Expected Goal Chance Value ÷ Goals Allowed
This single metric cuts through the noise of shot counts and save percentages to reveal performance reality:
A ratio of 4.0 to 4.5 indicates a good performance—the goalie faced four to four-and-a-half times more quality chances than goals allowed.
A ratio above 4.5 signals excellent to exceptional performance. The goalie is saving chances at an elite rate, likely stealing points for their team.
A ratio below 4.0 indicates below-average performance. The goalie is allowing too many goals relative to the quality chances faced.
A ratio approaching zero reveals poor performance—the goalie is allowing nearly as many goals as quality chances faced.
Let's see this in action:
Good performance: Expected Goal Chance Value of 9.0, 2 goals allowed = ratio of 4.5. Solid work right at the threshold of a good game.
Excellent performance: Expected Goal Chance Value of 8.0, 1 goal allowed = ratio of 8.0. The goalie is saving chances at twice the rate of a "good" performance.
Poor performance: Expected Goal Chance Value of 4.0, 4 goals allowed = ratio of 1.0. The goalie allowed a goal on nearly every quality chance faced.
The ratio doesn't lie. It can't be inflated by easy saves on perimeter shots or deflated by a barrage of low-danger volume. It measures what matters: performance against legitimate scoring threats.
The Slot/Far Shot Ratio: Context Completes the Picture
One final metric completes our evaluation framework: the Slot/Far Shot ratio.This simple calculation—slot shots divided by far shots—reveals the context in which the goalie operated. It tells us about defensive quality, game situation, opponent strategy, and the true difficulty of the workload faced.
A high Slot/Far ratio (like 2.0, meaning 20 slot shots and 10 far shots) indicates a defense under siege. The goalie is facing constant high-danger situations with minimal defensive support.
A low Slot/Far ratio (like 0.32, meaning 8 slot shots and 25 far shots) reveals strong defensive structure. The opponent is forced to the perimeter, and the goalie operates in a lower-stress environment.
Why does this matter? Because two goalies can post identical traditional statistics while operating in completely different realities.
Consider two goalies who each allow 3 goals on 35 shots. Identical save percentages, identical shot counts. But look deeper:
Goalie A has a Slot/Far ratio of 0.3—mostly easy shots with strong defensive support.
Goalie B has a Slot/Far ratio of 1.8—constant slot pressure and minimal defensive help.
Goalie B had a significantly more difficult game, and any complete evaluation must account for this context.
The Complete Picture: Eight Dimensions of Evaluation
When P35 Sports evaluates a goalie, we see eight interconnected dimensions of performance:
Total shots faced – the starting point, never the conclusion
Slot/Far ratio – the context of defensive support and game situation
Easy Shots vs. Goal Chances – the true difficulty of the workload
Grade A, B, C breakdown – the specific threat levels within goal chances
Easy Goals – the unforgivable mistakes that signal deeper issues
Easy Rebounds – the self-created chances that reveal rebound management
Expected Goal Chance Value – the mathematical reality of scoring threats
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio – actual performance measured against expectation
This isn't opinion. This is systematic, replicable, objective evaluation built on years of data collection and analysis.
Real-World Application: When Identical Stats Tell Different Stories
Let's examine four goalies and see how traditional statistics mask performance reality.
Goalie A
Traditional Stats: 28 shots faced, 4 goals allowed, 85.7% save percentage
P35 Sports Analysis:
Slot/Far ratio: 0.27 (22 far shots, 6 slot shots)
4 Goal Chances (1 Grade A, 2 Grade B, 1 Grade C)
Expected Goal Chance Value: 2.8
2 Easy Goals
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio: 0.7
Verdict: Poor performance. Two Easy Goals and a ratio approaching zero indicate the goalie allowed goals on nearly every quality chance despite strong defensive support. The low Slot/Far ratio reveals this should have been an easy game.
Goalie B
Traditional Stats: 28 shots faced, 4 goals allowed, 85.7% save percentage
P35 Sports Analysis:
Slot/Far ratio: 1.33 (12 far shots, 16 slot shots)
11 Goal Chances (5 Grade A, 4 Grade B, 2 Grade C)
Expected Goal Chance Value: 9.2
0 Easy Goals
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio: 2.3
Verdict: Below-average performance, but context matters. The ratio of 2.3 falls short of the 4.0 threshold for a good game. However, this goalie faced nearly four times the scoring threats of Goalie A and allowed zero Easy Goals. The high Slot/Far ratio indicates significant defensive struggles. This is underperformance, but not collapse.
Goalie C
Traditional Stats: 25 shots faced, 2 goals allowed, 92.0% save percentage
P35 Sports Analysis:
Slot/Far ratio: 1.5 (10 far shots, 15 slot shots)
9 Goal Chances (3 Grade A, 4 Grade B, 2 Grade C)
Expected Goal Chance Value: 6.8
0 Easy Goals
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio: 3.4
Verdict: Solid performance under pressure. While the ratio of 3.4 sits below the 4.0 "good game" threshold, the high Slot/Far ratio and zero Easy Goals indicate competent play in a difficult situation. This goalie kept their team in the game.
Goalie D
Traditional Stats: 32 shots faced, 2 goals allowed, 93.8% save percentage
P35 Sports Analysis:
Slot/Far ratio: 3.0 (8 far shots, 24 slot shots)
14 Goal Chances (6 Grade A, 5 Grade B, 3 Grade C)
Expected Goal Chance Value: 10.5
0 Easy Goals
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio: 5.25
Verdict: Excellent performance. A ratio above 4.5 indicates elite-level saves despite facing extreme pressure. The Slot/Far ratio of 3.0 reveals a defense under siege—24 slot shots against only 8 far shots. This goalie stole a game.
Traditional statistics would rank these performances: D > C > B = A
P35 Sports analysis reveals the truth: D (excellent) > C (solid) > B (below-average in difficult circumstances) > A (poor with defensive support)
Same sport. Same position. Completely different realities.
Why This Method Eliminates Subjectivity
Every element of our system rests on objective, measurable criteria:
✅ Shot location (slot vs. far) – measurable on video
✅ Pass type (across, single-side, none) – observable in real-time
✅ Shooter movement (walk-in location) – trackable frame by frame
✅ Screen presence – yes or no
✅ Deflection – yes or no
✅ Rebound source (easy shot or goal chance) – traceable to previous shot
There's no room for "I think" or "it seemed like." Every shot receives classification according to fixed parameters. Every goalie faces evaluation by the same standard. Every performance measures against mathematical expectation built on thousands of analyzed situations.
The system doesn't care about reputation, draft position, or team success. It cares about what actually happened on the ice.
The P35 Sports Advantage: From Data to Development
This is why P35 Sports video analysis transcends highlight reels and basic statistics.
When we analyze your games, you receive:
Complete shot classification for every shot faced
Expected Goal Chance Value calculation
Goal/Goal Chance Ratio performance measurement
Easy Goal identification with technical breakdown
Rebound management assessment
Contextual game analysis through Slot/Far ratio
You don't get opinions. You get data. And from that data, we build targeted training plans addressing your specific performance gaps—not generic "work on your glove hand" advice, but precise interventions based on what the numbers reveal about your game.
For Coaches: Implementing This System
Want to bring this methodology to your goalies? Start with these five foundational elements:
Track shot location (slot vs. far) for every shot
Identify passes (across, single-side, none)
Note screens and deflections
Mark Easy Goals immediately
Track rebound sources (easy shot or goal chance)
Even these five elements will revolutionize your goalie evaluation, revealing patterns invisible to traditional statistics.
Ready to go deeper? Consider advanced implementation:
Use video analysis software to tag shots by category in real-time
Build a database tracking Expected Goal Chance Values over time
Compare goalies within your system using identical criteria
Identify patterns in Easy Goals and rebound management across multiple games
The investment in systematic evaluation pays dividends in targeted development and objective decision-making.
For Goalies: Demanding Better Evaluation
If you're serious about development, you need this level of analysis. Stop accepting "you faced 30 shots and allowed 3 goals" as meaningful feedback.
Start asking your coach the questions that matter:
What was my Expected Goal Chance Value tonight?
How many Easy Goals did I allow?
What was my Goal/Goal Chance Ratio?
Which Grade A chances did I save, and which did I allow?
How many chances did I create through poor rebound control?
What was my Slot/Far ratio, and how does that compare to previous games?
These questions separate goalies who want to improve from goalies who want to feel good about their save percentage.
Understanding your ratio is crucial:
Below 4.0? You're allowing too many goals on quality chances. This signals technical issues, positioning breakdowns, or mental lapses that need immediate attention.
4.0-4.5? Solid performance. Focus on consistency and maintaining this standard.
Above 4.5? You're stealing games. Identify exactly what's working—positioning, reads, technical execution—and replicate it.
The ratio doesn't flatter or deceive. It tells you precisely where you stand against legitimate scoring threats, game after game.
Conclusion: Beyond Subjectivity, Into Truth
The question was never whether your goalie had a good game. The question is: What did they actually face, and how did they respond?
Traditional statistics can't answer that question. Shot counts can't answer it. Save percentage can't answer it. Only systematic shot discernment—built on objective criteria and years of data—can reveal the truth.
This is the P35 Sports method. This is how we evaluate every goalie, every game, every shot.
No bias. No subjectivity. No comfortable illusions.
Just truth, backed by data, refined through thousands of analyzed situations.
When you understand not just how many shots a goalie faced, but what those shots actually represented—the movement required, the complexity involved, the legitimate scoring probability—you finally see goalie performance clearly.
And once you see clearly, you can develop purposefully.
But We're Not Done Yet
The methodology we've outlined today represents the foundation of goalie evaluation, but performance doesn't stop at pure statistics. Context matters profoundly.
Consider two Easy Goals allowed in a game. The numbers treat them identically, but the reality is vastly different:
Two Easy Goals at 7-0 late in the game indicate a concentration lapse when the outcome is decided. It's a mistake, certainly, but one that didn't influence the result.
Two Easy Goals at 0-0 early in the game change everything. They set the tone, shift momentum, and potentially decide the outcome. The technical error is identical, but the impact is incomparable.
When goals are allowed matters. A goal at 0-0 carries different weight than a goal at 5-1. A breakdown in the first period influences the game differently than one in the final minutes of a decided contest.
How goals are allowed matters. Was it a technical breakdown? A positioning error? A mental lapse? A communication failure with the defense? The classification tells us what happened, but understanding how and why reveals what needs to change.
In our next article, we'll explore these contextual layers of evaluation—game situation, timing, momentum impact, and the psychological dimensions of performance. And we'll introduce the P35 Performance Index: the comprehensive metric we use to classify goalie performances in their totality.
The Expected Goal Chance Value and Goal/Goal Chance Ratio provide mathematical clarity. The P35 Performance Index provides complete truth.
Ready to see your performance through this lens?
Discover how P35 Sports video analysis and coaching can transform your understanding of goalie play. Our systematic methodology provides the clarity you need to identify weaknesses, build on strengths, and develop with precision.
Visit www.p35sports.com or contact us to learn more about our evaluation system and coaching programs.
ALL WE CARE IS YOUR PASSION!
And passion demands truth, not comfortable illusions.
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